Who Will Succeed Obama? Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Eric Zorn offers convincing reasons why it won't be the state's most popular politician, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan:

Because his [Gov. Rod Blagojevich] only real hope for winning the Democratic primary,  assuming he runs for re-election, is that Madigan splits the anti-Blagojevich vote with Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Comptroller Dan Hynes and perhaps Lt. Gov. Patrick Quinn, State Rep. Jack Franks (Woodstock)  or others who may run.  The larger the field, the better the chance he has of eking by with a modest percentage of the overall vote. And with Madigan in the race, the field would likely be smaller than with Madigan in Washington...

Further, Blagojevich is under pressure from black leaders to keep an African American in the seat, and not doing so would be likely to cost him support in a community whose support he has relied on in the past.

I think Zorn is absolutely right on this one.  And among the remaining contenders, retiring State Senator Emil Jones and Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. are the strongest possibilities.  The selection of either man strengthens Blago's position with black voters.  Personal loyalties point to a Jones selection, but my hunch is that Jackson, Jr would be the more popular selection with black voters.  Junior also has a better shot at holding the seat in the long run and Blago needs friends in the long run.

I'm not a state politics wonk so I don't feel extremely confident about my prediction, but my bet is on a Senator Jesse Jackson come January '09.

And going way, way out on a limb here, Junior's wife, Chicago Alder-person Sandi Jackson, will run for her husband's congressional seat in a special election and she will win.  Sandi's ultimate ambition is to replace mayor-for-life Rich Daley after he is incapacitated or dies.  A congressional seat would make a good way station for building her brand and forging loyalties.

Comments

[Blindfaith]

Anyone but the detestable Luis Gutierrez please.

[Dennis]

I think that you are right on both of these.

Please, no Sandi for mayor.
The city needs a strong hand. It doesn't matter if it is someone with ties to some shady boys back of the yards.

The problem is that we need another Mayor Daley but the voters will have to go through a few jokes (think Jane Byrne) before there is another Daley after this one.

[DrX]

An interesting idea and I think you could be right. We had two hack periods following the sudden deaths of Daley and Washington, respectively. Personally, I'd love to see Tom Tunney who I think would like to have the job. Genuine Chicagoan, smart, uncorrupted, Quigley alum, thick as thieves with Obama, progressive and popular and, most important, I don't think he'd be a transitional hack. Oh, yeah, and everyone loves Ann Sather's. I know that his name doesn't really get mentioned and I don't think he has a remote shot, but then again, if we're talking about 2016, who knows?

[Dennis]

Tom Tunney is a good guy. I've met him a couple of times and liked him. (Not the biggest fan of his restaurant, though)

Do you think he has enough of a strong spine to run the city?

Here is another suggestion: After serving 6 years in the first and second Obama administration, Rahm Emanuel returns to keep the Board of Aldermen in line. Thoughts?

(Or, just for the sake of comedy and a damned good laugh we could imagine Mr Foie Gras, Ald Joe Moore (49th - Loony) somehow winding up in charge! No, that is too horrible even for a joke... Trying to think of that one makes me want to drink.)

(Oh, I must be OCD because obsessive thoughts of horror are coming into my mind: What about Mary Smith (48th - Whack Job)??? What a fun game! Must go wash my hands. Must go wash my hands.)

[DrX]

Or do you prefer Svea's?

I might be at the conference, incognito, or not incognito, I guess.

[Dennis]

Svea's on Clark? I do like that place.

I tend to like some Greek joint for a breakfast spot, though. Feta cheese omelets and such. Of course they are about as "Greek" as Ann S.'s is Swedish.

One of the reasons that I have hated Seattle and counted the days until I get back to Chicago is a lack of decent Greek restaurants (and I don't mean the Greek themed restaurants named Athens or Nike but little family joints that are in a lot of northside neighborhoods.) Oh, and I have missed German food, too. I go to the Brauhaus for the rude waitresses and the schnitzel every time I can.

If you are at the SPA conference look for a student near forty wearing glasses I'll pick up the first round.

[Lucinda]

Fox is reporting that he will pick Jones.

[Mark H]

"Fox is reporting that he will pick Jones."

Great, another fox to guard the hen house. From Wikipedia:

"During his years in the General Assembly, Jones often kept up the traditions of old-school politicians. He has steered state money to a few favored institutions, including some that employ his relatives. Some of his relatives also have gotten state jobs and his wife’s government salary got a sizable boost after he became Senate president in 2003, when the Blagojevich administration created a special salary class.[3] Jones faced scrutiny after it was reported that his wife received a $70,000 pay raise two months after she was and Jones were married and four months after she started her position, when Governor Rod Blagojevich created a special salary class for her position.[14] Jones also received attention in 2008 for postponing a vote on an automatic legislative pay raise of 7.5% which would go into effect if the Senate did not vote on the proposal (the House voted no).[4]

Jones announced in August 2008 that he will retire in January 2009. Of who would replace him on the ballot, his spokesperson said, "His preference, yes, would be to see his son [Emil Jones III] serve," which has prompted criticism and been described as "anointing one of his children to take over for him."[15]

[Noni Mausa]

A bit of a problem rears its head...

Governor Is Held in Inquiry Into Filling Obama’s Seat

By MONICA DAVEY
Published: December 9, 2008

Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich of Illinois was arrested on Tuesday morning and charged with corruption, including an allegation that he conspired to profit from his authority to appoint President-elect Barack Obama’s successor in the United States Senate, prosecutors said.

As Mr. Blagojevich mulled the Senate appointment, prosecutors say, he discussed gaining “a substantial salary” at a nonprofit foundation or organization connected to labor unions, placing his wife on corporate boards where she might earn as much as $150,000 a year and trying to gain promises of campaign money, or even a cabinet post or ambassadorship, for himself.

A 76-page affidavit from the United States Attorney’s office in Northern Illinois says Mr. Blagojevich was heard on wiretaps over the last month planning to “sell or trade Illinois’ United States Senate seat vacated by Pres-elect Barack Obama for financial and personal benefits for himself and his wife.”

Entire article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/us/politics/10Illinois.html?hp

[DrX]

Noni,

Yes, a bit of a problem and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Blago is certainly not about to resign and it is unclear how his indictment affects his power to appoint the senate replacement. I don't see any legal obstacle at the moment, but I was wondering just yesterday if Fitzgerald's office might been deliberately holding back on an indictment until after the appointment. Now, though, it looks like knowledge of the tainted process may have hastened Blago's arrest. Can you imagine the complications if these allegations came out after the new senator's appointment?